I'm taking a page from Courtney's blog, where she recently played a game where her readers predicted her recent (kick-ass) marathon finishing time. She gave me permission to steal her game.
If you aren't aware yet, I'm running my 7th marathon just 10 days from now -- the Ogden Marathon in Ogden, Utah. And I want to hear your guess on how you think I'll finish!
My goal for this race and my training paces have been centered around a 3:30 finish. I announced that as my goal right from the get-go.
However, there are a couple caveats to this race.
- The race is at altitude and my ass has been training at sea level. I've read plenty of scary research on how this may affect performance. I've also heard plenty of varying opinions on how this may not affect performance. Go ahead and use your own judgement when making your guess because I have no idea how it'll affect me. I've never run at elevation before, let alone race. Ever.
- The race is net downhill. The course isn't nearly as downhill as many other races, but the elevation still looks exciting... 8 miles of downhill, rollers/gentle uphill for 9 miles, downhill for 7 miles, and then flat for 2, where most runners' legs forget how to work. There is one steep hill at mile 14 that, based on reports I've read, tends to wind even the most experienced marathoners.
And because I want to be fair...
A few things you may want to know before making your guess (as if I haven't bombarded you with enough information regarding this training cycle):
- I ran just two 20-milers this training cycle, as opposed to 3 or 4. However, I ended up setting PRs during both 20-milers. My overall average paces for those two runs were 8:05 and 8:00, respectively. During both of those 20-mile runs, this pace was not casual. I was working my tail off.
- During this training cycle, I set a new half marathon PR. I finished officially in 1:42:11, but my overall pace (since the course ran long) was 7:38. I hit the 13.1 mark in 1:40:28.
- My current marathon PR is 3:35:45 (8:12 pace) at CIM last December. I was shooting for a 3:33. The race was at sea level.
- I have done 6 previous marathons -- but this will be my second marathon where I'm attempting a goal that I feel is a hair beyond my reach.
Well, what's your best guess? What do you think my finishing time will be?
The person who guesses closest will get something cool. I don't know what that prize will be yet, but it'll be awesome. :)
Please submit your prediction before May 18th. GOOD LUCK!