Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Your Turn -- Guess My Marathon Time!

I'm taking a page from Courtney's blog, where she recently played a game where her readers predicted her recent (kick-ass) marathon finishing time. She gave me permission to steal her game.

SOOOO...

If you aren't aware yet, I'm running my 7th marathon just 10 days from now -- the Ogden Marathon in Ogden, Utah. And I want to hear your guess on how you think I'll finish!

My goal for this race and my training paces have been centered around a 3:30 finish. I announced that as my goal right from the get-go.  

However, there are a couple caveats to this race.
  1. The race is at altitude and my ass has been training at sea level. I've read plenty of scary research on how this may affect performance. I've also heard plenty of varying opinions on how this may not affect performance. Go ahead and use your own judgement when making your guess because I have no idea how it'll affect me. I've never run at elevation before, let alone race. Ever.
  2. The race is net downhill. The course isn't nearly as downhill as many other races, but the elevation still looks exciting... 8 miles of downhill, rollers/gentle uphill for 9 miles, downhill for 7 miles, and then flat for 2, where most runners' legs forget how to work. There is one steep hill at mile 14 that, based on reports I've read, tends to wind even the most experienced marathoners.

And because I want to be fair...

A few things you may want to know before making your guess (as if I haven't bombarded you with enough information regarding this training cycle):
  1. I ran just two 20-milers this training cycle, as opposed to 3 or 4. However, I ended up setting PRs during both 20-milers. My overall average paces for those two runs were 8:05 and 8:00, respectively. During both of those 20-mile runs, this pace was not casual. I was working my tail off.
  2. During this training cycle, I set a new half marathon PR. I finished officially in 1:42:11, but my overall pace (since the course ran long) was 7:38. I hit the 13.1 mark in 1:40:28.
  3. My current marathon PR is 3:35:45 (8:12 pace) at CIM last December. I was shooting for a 3:33. The race was at sea level.
  4. I have done 6 previous marathons -- but this will be my second marathon where I'm attempting a goal that I feel is a hair beyond my reach. 
Well, what's your best guess? What do you think my finishing time will be? 

The person who guesses closest will get something cool. I don't know what that prize will be yet, but it'll be awesome. :)

Please submit your prediction before May 18th. GOOD LUCK!

53 comments:

  1. You're going to rock it!!! In 3:29:11.

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  2. Jojo via twitter: "I'm still too tech-challenged to comment but I KNOW you're going to run a 3:28 :) "

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  3. All things considered, I'd guess 3:28:34. 20 milers are a great predictor of performance. The altitude will almost certainly be offset by the drop. The only thing that worries me is the beating your legs will take on the downhill. If you ran a lot of hills in SF, then you're probs fine.

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    1. Good point. Hills are inevitable in SF, but I've done my best to train flat/downhill -- sometimes running the same stretch of road/multiple loops of a large area to get flat/downhill mileage. :|

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  4. i love this kinda game! i'm gonna guess 3:36 -- not because i think you can't meet your goal (your times lately show you can meet it!) but because everyone else is guessing lower times and i wanna win a prize by being different! ha! I'm gonna assume the altitude will make a difference (though i have no idea if it's true...) runner_girl5k at yahoo dot com

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  5. Your training has gone great so I am going to guess 3:27:49. :D

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  6. I will go with 3:32:40 based on a combination of your half time and probable warmer temperatures, the downhill aspect (which might actually help or hurt depending how you trained) and the altitude.

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    1. Oooh, good call on the temperature! It most definitely will be warmer than what I've beeen training in, and forecasts are even showing a chance of rain at this point...

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  7. 3:29:57 (I want you to break 3:30 in really dramatic fashion).

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  8. I say 3:28:42. I have no specific reason. That popped into my head first.

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  9. 3:29:59
    Did you really think I'd guess anything else? ;-)

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    1. Of course not!! But what if I told you that many of my PR races end in :11 or :44? (Because that is true.)

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    2. Ooooh, you KNOW I'd be excited with the :11 time!!

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    1. You automatically win for not actually guessing! ;)

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  11. @genotopea is guessing 3:43:10

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  12. knowing how wicked downhills can be from this weekend (ran co marathon) and knowing that altitude can be a bitch as well as heat, guessing 3:37:12 for the course. if you were doing a flat sea level race, think you'd easily run close to a 3:25, because your training sounds pretty damn solid!

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    1. Congrats on your CO Marathon finish! I was looking at the course profile of your race yesterday & saw that it's nearly identical to Ogden (just at HIGHER elevation). Any tips you have on downhills -- my ears are wide open. :)

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  13. Here goes nothing -- 3:28:50. I think the first 10k or so will be hard, but once that's over you'll FLY! Get plenty of rest between now and then and GOOD LUCK!

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  14. This is a tough quiz!

    I think IF it is cool enough (pray for light cool rain rather than heat!) you just might get sub-3:30..it is very close based on your marathon time..

    I don't think the altitude will be too much of a factor...your HRs will be higher but it's the muscle fade that's the problem in the end for non-elites. And the fact there are no uphills in the last 6 miles gives me hope you can tough it out..

    I looked at the map..nice course..LOVE point to point races. Not a snaky course so you should be able to run the tangents well.

    Take that bump-up hill easy..slow down! Then get the time back on the downside.

    Don't go too fast on the early downhills stick to your pace band splits...(don't just rely on garmin..have pace band too of course...)

    I am going to wait for the weather to develop before I pick a number 8)

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    1. :D Looking forward to your guess, Paul!

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  15. I'm thinking that the 20-milers are great indicators of what you can do. And your last race was so darn close that I know you have it in you. The altitude is the one sneaky factor, I think--all a matter of whether or not it will hit you or not. SO--I'm going to go w/ 3:31.

    Good luck!!!

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  16. This is my favorite game to play! Sometimes I try to guess people's marathon times without their permission, haha Jessica's is my favorite - you have been rocking your training runs, so I'm going with 3:29:29 for the symmetry of the number =) Either way, you are breaking 3:30!

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  17. I'm going to guess 3:26:20 because
    (1) you're going to demolish this race
    (2) it's a fun number
    (3) downhills are THE BEST

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  18. 3:33:26 (I know, more than 3:30 goal time, but my frapp is half empty right now :-P)

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  19. You have totally trained for this and the hills won't bother (except that killer at mile 14 - ouch!) I think you will be right at 3:30. The heat and elevation will play a role, but you are ready for this. Best of Luck!!

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  20. 3:30:24

    Wishing you all the best!

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  21. @SJRedGirl is guessing 3:29:18

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  22. it's so interesting to see what everyone else factors into their race! i have total faith that you will DOMINATE this race!!!! however, given that it's at altitude-- it can be one tough cookie-- but everybody is different!

    because it is at altitude, i am going to say 3:31:31

    HOWEVER. if this were at sea level i'd say around 3:28.

    best of luck to you! stay out of your head, and when it hurts--just dig a little deeper!


    you got this lady! :D

    downhill tip-- don't pound down them! keep the EFFORT the same going down & going up. note: effort does not = pace! when you get to mile 14.. just remember.. YOU EAT HILLS FOR BREAKFAST! :) :)

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  23. 3:29:02! And if this doesn't happen here, it will be happening at CIM, right? Because you can't talk us into it and not run it :)

    Good luck!

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  24. I think you're going to hit this spot-on. 3:29:08

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  25. @kristin_running is guessing 3:29:44

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  26. SO. No one else is predicting the race of your life. I saw Emily do it at Eugene. It's possible.

    So...I don't see why I shouldn't go big. 3:18:52.

    There I said it. Can I get a hell yeah???

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  27. I am going to say 3:33. Not that I don't think you can make your goal, but the altitude (and heat!) need to be factored in. I hope you prove me wrong!

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  28. Hey! Glad you left a comment about this since I had just hit "mark all as read" on Google Reader after throwing my white flag in the air and promising to be better about keeping up with everyone.

    Okay, so I want to preface my guess by saying I 100% think you are capable of a 3:25 at sea level on even a rolling course. I *100%* think this! But predicting this I need to go with my own experience with altitude and I think it is going to be very difficult to run at your max ability even with a downhill advantage. That said, my guess for this race would be 3:37. (ducks and hides) As Kyria said, I really hope you prove me wrong, too!

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  29. I think you are going to kick ass no matter what!!! Good luck and best wishes! UMM (Matt) however, just read your blog and thinks you are going to work really hard to push yourself and the downhill will certainly help that along so he guesses - 3:26:33!!!! YAY!! Don't forget to smile!

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    1. Haha...Okay. My guess is 3:29:53. I hope UMM wins though because I like that finishing time for you better! :)

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  30. Holy hell! Look at all the comments... and EVERYONE is shooting low. That means we ALL have faith in the power that is DIARY.

    Here we go... Survey says: 3:24:08 — Fuck that 3:30 shit. hahaha. Breaking out the swear words. This is what happens when you call me out on Twitter to come play. :)

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  31. 3:02:15

    Oh wait, I thought you were Katie again.

    Your watch is going to show 3:30:08, and you're gonna cry, but then the official results come out, and you get a 3:29:51

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  32. I'm going for 3.29.58. I have confidence!!!

    And I also have no PF due to that pro foot insert...thanks for the advice!!!

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  33. I have ZERO doubt you are capable of a sub 3:30... but I am just going to guess based on heat and altitude and just plain guessing.

    3:34:59 :)

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  34. Whatever Aron says (3:34:59) I second. She "knows things." ;)

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  35. 3:33:33 (I like 3s) go rock it!!!

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  36. Woo! We are very similar runners it sounds like so I'm going to guess something similar to a time I've achieved (been trying to break 3:30 for a few races now)... 3:31.08. GOOD LUCK!!

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